Who are these centrist, independent-minded voters who swung the elections in Virginia, New Jersey and Massachusetts to Republican candidates and are likely to be crucial in races this fall?

Political analysts are searching for a name. They have tried “tea partier,” “populist,” “conservative,” even “strange and unpredictable.”

None of these fits, however.

These voters are neither populist nor conservative. But many may be libertarian — fiscally conservative but socially liberal or tolerant.

A careful look at polling data shows these voters may be less mysterious than analysts think.

Libertarians seem to be a leading indicator of this trend in centrist, independent-minded voters, based on an analysis of many years of polling data. We estimate that libertarians compose from 14 percent to 23 percent of voters nationally. They are among the few real swing voters in U.S. politics.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0410/35977.html

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Posted in Life In General Politics Public Polls The News by Stephen No Comments Yet